Soil Temperatures in Illinois

The Illinois State Water Survey maintains a network of 19 soil temperature sites across the state that measure temperatures at 4 and 8 inches. You can look at maps for 10 am, any hour of the day, high for the day, low for the day, under sod, and under bare soil. You can find all their data at this site: http://www.isws.illinois.edu/warm/soiltemp.asp 

Here is the 4-inch soil temperature from yesterday. It’s always a day behind so that they can upload the data and do quality control checks. The data now arrive hourly. My mistake – they used to upload the data once a day and do QC but now it is more timely. As you would expect, soil temperatures change more slowly than the air temperatures.

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And here is what it looked like two years ago after a record warm March. I chose April 2, 2012 for the same time of day and depth. As you can see, the soil temperatures were about 12 degrees warmer and USDA NASS reported that 5% of the corn crop had already been planted by that date.

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March Cold and Dry in Illinois

Based on preliminary data, March 2014 in Illinois was cold and dry.

Temperature

The statewide average temperature was 33.8 degrees, which was 7 degrees below average and the 8th coldest March on record. Combined with the colder-than-average January and February made this the 4th coldest start (23.6 degrees) for Illinois for the year to date.

This was the fifth month in a row with temperatures much below average in Illinois. At this point, it was the second coldest November-March on record for Illinois at 29.1 degrees. See the bar graph below showing monthly temperature departures since January 2013.

If this cold March felt familiar, it was because last March was cold as well. The statewide average temperature for March 2013 was only 34.1 degrees.

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Precipitation

The statewide average precipitation was 1.49 inches, which strangely enough was 1.49 inches below average and the 11th driest on record. The statewide average precipitation last March was much higher at 2.74 inches. Eight out of the last nine months have had below-average precipitation. As a result, the statewide precipitation departure since July 1 was 7.2 inches.

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The first map below is the accumulated precipitation for March (rain plus the water content of any snow event). Most of the state received between 1 to 2 inches of precipitation. It was wettest in the far south and driest in the northwest.

The second map shows the precipitation departures from average for March, showing all areas of the state with below-average precipitation. This would be of more concern if March had been warm. However, with the colder conditions very little drying took place.

Snowfall

The third map shows the snowfall for March. Amounts were in the 1 to 5 inch range in the southern half of the state and 5 to 15 inches or more in the northern half. Mendota reported the highest monthly total of 17.9 inches.

The fourth map shows the snowfall departure from average for March. The entire state was above-average on snowfall for the month. While it seems like a contradiction to report above-average snowfall and below-average precipitation for March, it really is not. The problem is that we have had few rainfall events in March, which was unusual. So we ended up with a lot of snow but the water content of all that snow did not make up for the lack of rain. map_btd

 

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Washington IL – 4 Months After the November 17 Tornado

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The first thing you notice is the fireplace standing alone. If you click to enlarge the photo, you can clearly see debris that had been buried under snow all winter. You can see other damaged houses in the background as well as the ruined trees.

On Friday, I visited Washington IL to check on the recovery from the November 17, 2013, tornado event. The good news is that I saw lots of construction. The bad news is that a lot of damage remains. As a result of the harsh winter, very little clean up could be done in these conditions, let alone extensive construction. In fact, the city is still looking for volunteers to help with the cleanup. Other locations hit by the November 17 tornado outbreak are facing similar conditions.

While tornadoes can occur in any month of the year, our core season in March-June. In many cases, a community has a full construction season to recover from such a disaster. One of the unique aspects of this tornado outbreak is that it happened in mid November, with winter right around the corner. And not just any winter, but one of the harshest winters in a long time. Looking at the weather records for nearby Peoria, the low temperatures after November 17 quickly dropped below freezing with a few light snow events. By December, they had a full-blown winter. By the end of it, Peoria received 49.6 inches of snow, the second highest total behind the 52.5 inches in 2010-11. It was the 8th coldest December-February on record as well. It is no wonder that the cleanup effort has a long ways to go.

However, as they say, “spring brings hope” and on that spring day last Friday I saw signs of hope and recovery for Washington IL. My sympathies go out to all tornado victims as they heal physically, financially, and emotionally from this natural disaster.

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Here is an example of a concrete slab wiped clean in the foreground and new houses under construction in the background. Friday was a nice day and the builders were running at 100%. Click to enlarge.

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This house has been severely damaged with the loss of the roof and most of the upstairs walls. What I found haunting is that you can clearly to two twin beds on the right, another bedroom on the left. While it did not come out in the photo, there were clothes still hanging in the closet. Click to enlarge.

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Another severely damaged house with the roof and several walls missing. By the front door is a piece of plywood with the words “OK” on it; hopefully indicating that the residents survived. Click to enlarge.

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New NOAA Climate and Flood Outlooks

Happy Spring Equinox!

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

There were a lot of new outlooks released today from NOAA. First are the new temperature and precipitation outlooks for April and this spring. It looks like the below-average temperatures are likely to continue in April. We have had below-average temperatures in Illinois for every month since November.

The April-June outlook has northern Illinois with an increased chance of below-average temperatures. Areas labeled E.C. mean that there are equal chances of above-, below-, or near-average temperatures or precipitation (depending on the map type).

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NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks. Click to enlarge.

Spring Flooding Risk

The second major announcement is the spring flood outlook.

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In the article, they say,

An unusually cold and wet winter across the Upper Mississippi Basin, Great Lakes region, Ohio River Valley, northern Middle Atlantic, New York and New England has produced an above normal amount of water in the current snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground much further south than typical. With significant frozen ground in these areas, the flood risk is highly dependent on the amount of future rainfall and the rate of snowmelt this spring. Recent snowmelt has increased the near surface soil moisture and elevated the potential for rapid runoff from rain events. In addition, significant river ice increases the risk of flooding related to ice jams and ice jam breakups.

Moderate flooding is expected in southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and portions of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, as a result of water in the current snowpack and the deep layer of frozen ground coupled with expected seasonal temperatures and rainfall. Specific rivers at risk include the Mississippi River between Davenport, Iowa and Burlington, Iowa, the Illinois River between Beardstown, Illinois and Henry, Illinois and many smaller rivers in the area. In addition, a potential for exceeding minor river flood levels exists across the upper Midwest and east into New England.

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First Half of March – Cold and Dry

Winter’s grip on Illinois is slowly releasing. However, we remain cold and dry for March. The statewide average temperature for March 1-16, 2014, was 30.3 degrees, which is almost 8 degrees below average. The good news is that the average, or normal, temperatures are climbing rapidly through the month. As a result, being 8 degrees below average in mid-March is still warmer than this winter. The NWS Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show the below-average temperatures to continue through the end of March.

Besides the cooler temperatures, another concern at this point is the below-average precipitation (in shades of yellow and orange) for March so far. This is true not only across Illinois but much of the Midwest.

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March Precipitation Departure from Average (inches). Click to enlarge.

Below are the 90-day precipitation departures from average. Above-average precipitation (shaded in green) can be found in IL, IN, OH, and MI, due for the most part to our generous snows and a few rain events. However, parts of southeastern IL are 1.5 to 3 inches below average. This is part of a larger area of dryness covering Missouri and parts of KS, OK, and AR. Of course this pattern could change quickly as we get out of winter and into spring. A few good spring rains could erase most of this deficit. In the meantime, we will be watching this area closely.

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4th Coldest Winter in Illinois and What Follows

I have received several questions about whether or not this winter is an indicator of the upcoming growing season. The good news is that, at least historically, a harsh winter is not followed by a harsh summer.

Analysis

The statewide average temperature for the three core winter months of December, January, and February was 20.8 degrees. That was 8.2 degrees below average and the fourth coldest December-February period on record. Here is how it compared with some other cold winters in Illinois.

Rank Year Avg.
1 1977-1978 19.6
2 1978-1979 19.9
3 1935-1936 20.6
4 1917-1918 20.8
4 1976-1977 20.8
4 2013-2014 20.8

By the way, the 1981-2010 statewide average is 29.0 degrees.

So what followed after these harsh winters? We will look at the winters of the late 1970s first. The plot below shows the monthly temperature departures from average for Illinois. After the first of the three harsh winters, we had a remarkably warm spring in 1977, followed by summer and fall temperatures close to average. The temperatures in 1978 and 1979 were even closer to average. Not shown here, but the precipitation during the growing season of those three years was close to average as well. Overall, the growing seasons were unremarkable in both temperature and precipitation.

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Here is the same analysis (plot below) for the two other harsh winters in the list: 1918 and 1936. The interesting thing about 1918 as the persistent alternation between warmer- and colder-than-average conditions from one month to the next. Precipitation for 1918 was one inch below average. Of course, 1936 is infamous for both the drought and heat that summer. That is clearly seen in the July, August, and September temperatures on the graph.

So of the five harsh winters in the analysis, we have only one case of a following summer showing harsh conditions. Another analysis I did offline with winter and summer temperatures showed zero correlation between the two.

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Waiting for Spring

I just posted some thoughts on the winter and it’s impact on the 2014 growing season in the Corn Belt as a guest on the AgriClimate Connection blog – a joint venture between two USDA project Sustainable Corn and U2U (Useful to Usable).  Check out Waiting for Spring.

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