NOAA Winter Forecast

Back on October 18, NOAA released their winter forecast. There was nothing too exciting for Illinois. Illinois has equal chances of above, below, and near-normal temperatures. The same is true for precipitation, except along the westward edge of Illinois which has a slightly increased risk of below-normal precipitation. See maps below.

If you look at the past dozen years in Illinois, winter-time temperatures have been consistent at being inconsistent (see graph). We have had some really mild winters in 2001-2002 and this last winter. On the other hand, we have had harsh winters including the three before this last winter.

Just to give you an idea of what is “normal” or average about Illinois, here is the link to the monthly and seasonal precipitation, temperature, and snowfall across Illinois.

Winter temperatures in Illinois for past 12 years. The departure is from the 1971-2000 period. The double date represents December of the first year and January and February of the second year.

NWS Winter Temperature Outlook.

NWS Winter Temperature Outlook.

NWS Winter Precipitation Outlook.

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About Jim Angel

I have been the state climatologist for Illinois since 1997 and have worked at the Illinois State Water Survey since 1984.
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2 Responses to NOAA Winter Forecast

  1. Kelly Flack says:

    Would like to see a map of current Illinois drought conditions now like that of the map released on Oct 11 after receiving the rainfall in northwest IL.

  2. Sundance says:

    Back on 9/20 you provided the NOAA Fall outlook in which they forecasted warmer than normal temps for October. It will be interesting to see how NOAA did.

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