NOAA Outlook for February and Beyond

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their latest outlooks for the month of February and for 3-month periods beyond that. I posted the maps below. You can see more detailed maps on their website. The February outlook for Illinois is indecisive or neutral – equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-average temperature and precipitation.

The February-April outlook for temperature in Illinois is EC as well. The only interesting feature is an area in southern Illinois with an increased chance of above-average precipitation.

These forecast have traditionally had low forecast skill in Illinois, especially for precipitation. Right now the problem is that there are no strong force of nature in place like El Niño or La Niña to help guide the forecasts. At this time, the Climate Prediction Center states that we will likely not see either El Niño or La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.