NWS Outlook – Wet October, Warmer Fall for Illinois

There is an increased chance of above-average precipitation for the northern half of Illinois in October and an increased chance of above-average temperatures in October-November-December for all of Illinois, according to the latest outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

October Precipitation

The first map shows the precipitation outlook for October. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected in much of the northern Corn Belt as well. The rest of Illinois is in equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-average precipitation. All of Illinois has equal chances of above, below, and near-average temperatures. Another way to think of “EC” is that the odds are evenly divided among the three categories.

off14_prcp
Click to enlarge.

In the last 30 days, much above-average precipitation has spread across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. In the map below, areas in green are up to 4 inches above average and areas in blue are up to 8 inches above average. This could be a concern as we start the fall harvest season.

map1

October-November-December Outlook

Below are the outlooks for October and October-November-December. The most interesting feature is the increased chance of above-average temperatures for October-November-December. The pattern of above-average temperatures stretches from coast to coast and includes most of the Midwest.

Illinois has equal chances for above, below, and near-average precipitation for October-November-December.

off01_temp

 

 

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