Latest Outlook for Winter in the US

Today the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their latest winter forecast. First, there are two important notes about the winter forecast. One is that El Niño has not arrived yet, and if it does, it is expected to be mild.

The other point is that the current conditions are not always a reliable predictor of future conditions. In other words, just because we are having a cold November (9 degrees below average), that does not doom us to another cold winter. To give a recent example, November of 2012 was 1.3 degrees below average, while the following winter of 2012-13 was 3.0 degrees above average.

The first panel shows the temperature odds for December-February, our core winter months. Southern Illinois has a slightly elevated chance of colder-than-average temperatures as does most of the southern states. There is a stronger chance that temperatures will be above-average on the West Coast and Alaska.

DecJanFeb_temp_outlooks_with_pies_610

The second panel shows the precipitation odds for winter. The outstanding feature for us is the large area around the Great Lakes with an increased chance of being drier-than-average that covers all of Illinois.

DecJanFeb_precip_outlooks_with_pies_610

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