Another Forecast Suggests a Higher Chance of a Wet Fall in Illinois

Last week, the NWS Climate Prediction Center released their official forecast for fall and winter. Their forecasters used a variety of tools and as well their own expertise to develop those forecasts. While their forecast for Illinois this winter was interesting, the one for fall was not.  They had us with equal chances of above-, below-, and near-average temperature and precipitation.

However, there is one forecast tool that showed some results for Illinois this fall. That tool is called the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). It consist of several forecast models that are run out to 7 months. The advantages of having multiple model runs are that an average of all results tends to be a better forecast than a single model. Also, the spread in the model results gives you an idea of the uncertainty of the forecast. For example, if all the models showed this winter being warmer-than-average, our confidence in the forecast would be much how than if some models showed it being warmer, some models showing colder, and others showing average conditions.

These results below for fall (SON=September, October, November) are considered experimental and not part of the NWS official forecast. However, they do shed some insight on what the models are “thinking” for fall. The first map show the chances on fall precipitation in three categories (wet, dry, average) using all models. They have Illinois and much of the US with an increased chance of above-average precipitation.

prob_ensemble_prate_us_season1

The second map shows the chances of temperature in three categories (cool, warm, average). The lack of blue or yellow shading in Illinois translates into no increased chances of above or below-average temperatures. In fact, they are leaning slightly towards average temperatures.  Furthermore, a look at the forecasts from individual models (not shown here) suggests a high degree of agreement for Illinois with these results.

Finally, fall is a notoriously hard season to forecast because we are transitioning out of summer, into fall, and for some places early winter. Approach with caution.
prob_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1

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