Milder Seasonal Outlook for Illinois

The NWS Climate Prediction Center released their latest outlook for April and the growing season. In general, the concerns of a higher risk of a warm, dry spring and early summer shown in earlier outlooks seem to have dissipated in Illinois.

Our very strong El Niño is expected to linger until late spring or early summer, which is quite normal for these events. This summer is expected to be “ENSO-neutral” with a strong likelihood of transitioning to La Niña in the fall. An excellent discussion of El Niño and La Niña can be found at https://www.climate.gov/enso.

April

Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-average temperatures in April. The northern half of Illinois has EC on precipitation while the southern half has an increased chance of above-average precipitation. You might consider the phrase “equal chances” to mean they have no strong indication of conditions moving too far from the average. Sometimes I like to call it a neutral forecast.

April-May-June

Illinois has an increased chance of above-average temperatures in eastern and northern Illinois, while the rest of the state has EC. All of Illinois has EC for precipitation.

July-August-September

Illinois has an increased chance of above-average temperatures for July-September with EC for precipitation.

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