The National Weather Service released their seasonal outlook today. Here is their discussion of the outlooks. Hmm, I thought they were retiring the all-caps style.
BOTH OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN INDICATE A CONTINUED WEAKENING EL NINO STATE OVER THE PAST MONTH, WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL FAVORED DURING THE LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016. THE LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA DEVELOPING THEREAFTER INCREASES QUITE RAPIDLY WITH THE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT BY LATE SUMMER 2016, EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT.
The outlook for May indicates that Illinois has an increased chance of being warmer than average. Illinois has equal chances of being above, below, or near-average on precipitation. Click to enlarge maps.
The outlook for May-July indicates that parts of northern and eastern Illinois have a slightly increased chance of being warmer than average. Illinois has equal chances of being above, below, or near-average on precipitation. It’s not a very exciting forecast for Illinois but that’s ok.
The outlook for August-October indicates that Illinois (and the US) have an increased chance of being warmer than average. Far western Illinois has a slightly increased chance of being drier than average.