New Seasonal Outlooks for Fall and Winter

The NWS Climate Prediction Center released their new monthly and seasonal outlooks for October, October-December, and January-March. Illinois has an increased chance of having above-normal temperatures for the rest of 2016. That is no surprise since every month in 2016, except May, has been above-normal for Illinois.

According to the NWS, the current ocean/atmosphere conditions in the Pacific reflect so-called ENSO-neutral conditions. This means that we are not in El Niño or La Niña conditions. There is only a 55-60 percent chance of La Niña showing up this fall or winter. And if it does show up, it is likely to be a weak event.

In the NWS forecasts, the term equal chances (EC) is used to identify areas where there is no clear signal of how temperature or precipitation might behave. The other way to look at it is that those are areas without an increased risk of being much above or below normal.

October

For October, Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures. Western Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation. The rest of the state has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-normal precipitation. Click to enlarge.

October-December

For October-December, Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures. Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-normal precipitation.

January – March

For January-March, Illinois has equal chances of above, below, or near-normal temperatures and precipitation. There is an area with an increased chance of above-normal precipitation centered on Michigan that just touches northeast Illinois. However, I don’t give much credence to areas right on the edge of a particular zone.

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