Outlook for Spring – Warm

Notwithstanding this week, the outlook for this spring is warm. The Climate Prediction Center released their outlook on Thursday for April and beyond. Right now both El Niño and La Niña are out of the picture. However, there is much uncertainty for future conditions in the Pacific. Some models suggest that El Niño may return by late summer. As we move forward, we should get a clearer idea about El Niño.

April

For April, Illinois and much of the Midwest have an increased chance of above normal temperatures. Illinois has equal chances “EC” of above, below, or near-normal precipitation. I call EC a neutral forecast.

April – June

Like the outlook for April, the one for April through June shows Illinois and the Midwest with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and nothing on precipitation.

June – August

The heart of summer shows Illinois with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures. But more interesting is that they have introduced a region of below-normal precipitation in the southern half of Illinois. The combination of warmer and drier than normal conditions during that time of year could lead to drought.

September – November

More of the same – a greater chance of above-normal temperatures across Illinois and the US. Nothing is said about precipitation.

Advertisements