2016 So Far – 7th Warmest in Illinois

The statewide average temperature for January-July was 53.4 degrees, 1.8 degrees above normal and the 7th warmest January-July on record for Illinois. The warmest January-July was 2012 when we reached 57.2 degrees, thanks to the 2012 drought. In an earlier post, it was noted that January-June was the 7th warmest as well.

Here are the Illinois statewide monthly temperature and precipitation departures from normal for 2016. In the first graph, it is clear that we have been running warm for 2016 with 6 out of the 7 months above normal. Only May was below normal.

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August Forecast – Wet for Illinois

After the third wettest July on record in Illinois, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their latest August outlook on Saturday. They have the northern two-thirds of Illinois in this region with an increased chance of above-normal rainfall in August (first map, green shading). This is part of a larger area with increased chance of above-normal rainfall that extends into Iowa, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. While not part of the official forecast, many of the dynamic forecast models are showing that above-normal rainfall is more likely in southern Illinois as well.

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Third Wettest July on Record for Illinois

July Summary

The reports are in and this July was the third wettest July on record for Illinois. The statewide average rainfall was 7.12 inches, 3.04 inches above normal. The largest rainfall total in the state was Carbondale with 13.34 inches. I just received word the Water Survey’s ICN gauge at Dixon Springs reported 16.42″ for July.  

On a lesser note, the statewide average temperature for July was 75.9 degrees, 0.5 degrees above normal. While the second half of July was hot and humid, the first half had stretches of cool weather, including the July 4th weekend. Continue reading

Tied for Third Wettest July in Illinois

As of 7/28/16, the statewide average precipitation was 6.73 inches. That ties 1915 as the third wettest July on record for Illinois.There are chances of rain over the last few days of July, but the amounts are not expected to be large. Therefore, the total may increase and break the tie for third, but is not likely to exceed the 7.61″ experienced in 1992 for second place.

Here is the top ten list of wettest Julys again:

  1. 1958 with 8.10″
  2. 1992 with 7.61″
  3. 1915,2016 with 6.73″
  4. 1993 with 6.61″
  5. 1981 with 6.46″
  6. 1969 with 6.31″
  7. 1896 with 6.11″
  8. 1907 with 5.97″
  9. 2008 with 5.91″
  10. 1982 with 5.86″

Wet July in Illinois – Top Ten List

Wow, the heavy rains just keep on coming in July. Last night it was central Illinois (left panel), and the day before that was northern Illinois (right panel). Click to enlarge maps.

It’s no surprise then that Illinois has had abundant rainfall in July as shown in the figure below with total rainfall (left panel) and departures from normal (right panel). Like the children of Lake Wobegon, all of Illinois is above average on rainfall (except for a few small pockets), as denoted by the shades of green and blue in the right panel.

Through yesterday, the statewide average rainfall was 6 inches, which is approximately double the normal rainfall for July thus far. It also puts us at number 8 at number 5 in the top ten list of the wettest Julys on record for Illinois with more rain on the way this week. It would be hard to beat the top two spots with the current NWS forecast, but moving all the way up to #3 is possible.

Top Ten Wettest Julys in Illinois

  1. 1958 with 8.10″
  2. 1992 with 7.61″
  3. 1915 with 6.73″
  4. 1993 with 6.61″
  5. 2016 with 6.5″ as of 7/25/16
  6. 1981 with 6.46″
  7. 1969 with 6.31″
  8. 1896 with 6.11″
  9. 1907 with 5.97″
  10. 2008 with 5.91″

Seasonal Forecast for Illinois – Warm

The Climate Prediction Center released their latest monthly and seasonal forecast today. We are still in between El Niño and La Niña. According to CPC, “La Niña is favored to develop during August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.”

For August, the southern half of Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures (top row in the figure). The northern half has “EC” or equal chance of above, below, or near-normal temperatures. Western Illinois is part of a larger area in the western Corn Belt with an increased chance of above-normal rainfall. The rest of Illinois is in the “EC” category.

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Wet July in Illinois

The thunder is rumbling outside my window as I write this.Here is the radar/rain-gauge estimated rainfall for July (first map). Areas in green received only 1 to 2 inches, yellow 2 to 3 inches, oranges and reds 4 to 10 inches.

The second map shows these rains as a departure from normal for the first 18 days of July. There are several bands of above-normal rainfall across north-central and central Illinois. But the largest rainfall departures of plus 4 to 8 inches are in counties south of Carbondale.

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