Outlook for March, Spring, and Summer

The National Weather Service just released their outlook for March and spring. We have moved out of the La Niña pattern in the Pacific pattern to something called ENSO-neutral conditions this spring.That means we are between the El Niño and La Niña phases in the Pacific Ocean. Some of the predictive models are indicating a shift towards a weak El Niño by summer. That is actually good news for Illinois since we have a tendency to experience milder summer temperatures under those situations.

For March, they have Illinois in a region called “EC”, meaning that we have equal chances of being above, below, or near-normal on temperature and precipitation. Sometimes I call “EC” a neutral forecast because it does not lean one way or another.

For March-May, Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and northern Illinois has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation.


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Central Illinois Snow Drought

The most recent winter storm left a band of light to moderate snow across central Illinois. With warm soils, and forecasted highs in the 40s on Friday and in the 50s on Saturday, this snow will not stick around for too long.  The fact that we talking about such a modest storm underscores the quiet winter across central Illinois. In fact, the term snow drought has been raised in recent weeks to describe current conditions.


Snowfall for the Winter

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January Wrapup – Warm and Snowless Month

The preliminary January statistics are in for Illinois. The statewide average temperature was 31.4 degrees, 5.0 degrees above normal and the 14th warmest January on record. The statewide average precipitation was 2.16 inches, 0.09 inches above normal. The statewide snowfall was below normal across the state.

Temperature Maps

Temperatures have been above normal across the state and across the eastern half of the US for January. Click to enlarge.

Precipitation Maps

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January in Illinois – warm, wet, foggy, but little snow

Based on what we have seen so far in January, Illinois has been warmer and wetter than normal with little snowfall.

The statewide average temperature is 27.9 degrees, 3.9 degrees above normal. The statewide average precipitation (rain plus the water content of snow) is 1.6 inches, 0.4 inches above normal. Continue reading

Latest Monthly and Season Outlook for Illinois

The NWS Climate Prediction Center released their latest outlooks for February and upcoming seasons. So far, Illinois has been warm and wet in January. The statewide average temperature is 3.5 degrees above normal. Statewide precipitation is at 1.6 inches, 0.5 inches above normal. The rest of January looks like more of the same weather.


Illinois has equal chances (EC) of above, below, and near-normal temperature in February. Illinois has an increased chance of wetter than normal conditions in February. Click to enlarge.


Illinois has EC for temperatures and an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for February through April. Continue reading

Cold, Dry December Ends a Warm Year in Illinois

A cold, dry December wrapped up a warm year in Illinois.


The statewide average temperature for December was 28.6 degrees, 1.3 degrees below normal. The statewide average precipitation was 1.41 inches, 1.28 inches below normal.

December precipitation was light and below normal across most of Illinois, except for far southern Illinois. The largest reported precipitation total was 6.03 inches in Rosiclare, an NWS-COOP site in Hardin County. Precipitation includes rainfall and the water content of snow. Click on the images to enlarge.

December snowfall was absent in far southern Illinois and increased northward. Only northern Illinois received above-normal snowfall. The largest monthly snowfall total was 24.3 inches in Bull Valley, a CoCoRaHS station (IL-MCH-13) in McHenry County.

Annual – 2016

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Cold, Snowy First Half of December

The statewide average temperature for the first half of December is 27.9 degrees, 4.7 degrees above normal. Snowfall (maps below) has been heaviest north of Interstate 80, ranging from 10 to 15 in many locations. The snowfall totals taper off southward, dropping to about 2 inches near Interstate 72, and down to zero inches near Interstate 70 and sites to the south. For many areas in northern Illinois, this represents above-normal snowfall.

More wintery weather is expected today and tomorrow as another winter storm moves through the Midwest. This will be followed by very cold temperatures on Sunday and Monday before moderating somewhat on Tuesday.