Yesterday, the USDA released their report on soil moisture conditions for Illinois. Overall the state looks moist, especially in southern Illinois after weeks of rain. Statewide, 95 percent of the topsoil moisture and 93 percent of the subsoil moisture is rated as either “adequate” or “surplus”.
I am a little late in posting this, but March 18, 2015, marked the 90th anniversary of the Tri-State Tornado that struck Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, on March 18, 1925 (map below).
This was the deadliest tornado in U.S. history with 695 lives lost and occurred long before there were systematic forecasts and warnings of tornadoes. While it predated the common F-scale used to measure tornadoes, it was considered by experts to be an F-5 event. A few years ago there was a push to decide if this was one continuous track or not by examining all the evidence and interviewing survivors. It was hard to decide since there was no weather radar to track the storm. Some of the areas were very sparsely populated, leaving little documentation on the possible track.
So far the 2015 tornado season in Illinois and the rest of tornado alley is incredibly quiet. There are no tornadoes to report this year, except in the far Southeast and one in California. However, this quiet start is no reason to relax if the past few years are a guide.
Historically, the heart of the Illinois tornado season is March to June with two-thirds of our tornadoes occurring during those months. However, in the last few years, we have had more tornadoes occur outside of this period than inside.
And a lot of these tornadoes have been concentrated in just a few days of the year. In fact, 69 percent of the tornadoes in 2012-14 occurred on just 5 days. These high concentrations can put extra strain on forecasting, warning, and recovery operations.
Here is how 2012, 2013, and 2014 looked, compared to the historical averages. Continue reading
In the last 7 days, Illinois has received 1 to 3 inches south of Interstate 70 (map below). Most of that came from storms last weekend. However, the precipitation amounts dropped off rapidly northward in Illinois. Areas in the northern third of the state received little to no precipitation. We are keeping a close eye on the continuing dry conditions in northern Illinois. That area has been persistently dry for several months despite this winter’s snowfall.
NOAA released their Spring Flood Risk today. According to their map, most of Illinois has a minor risk of flooding this spring. An area at risk of moderate flooding is seen in southern Illinois. Sorry for the non-transparent overlay on the map – their map, not mine.
The good news of sorts is that much of the upper Midwest, including northern Illinois has been dry for the last 3-4 months. In the last few weeks, what snow cover we had in the central US is gone, as this map shows.